книги / Социально-экономический обзор Пермского края

The results of economic development provide for the income growth of the population. In 2005, cash incomes of the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) population amounted to 259,6 billion rubles (9,2 billion dollars) having increased by 46,8 billion rubles or by 22 % (in 2004 – by 20,3 %). The growth of cash incomes in the Russian Federation in 2005 amounted to 22,6 %.

In 2005, monthly average cash income per capita increased in comparison with the corresponding period of the previous year by 22,1 % and amounted to 7811 rubles (276,1 dollars) having almost reached the average Russian level of 7848 rubles (277,4 dollars). In respect to income per capita the region takes the second position in the Privolzhsky Federal District and occupies the nineteenth place in the Russian Federation.

The geographical situation of the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY), its industrial potential, availability of considerable natural resources in combination with labor resources the basis of which is formed by personnel of major high-tech industrial enterprises, enterprises of smalland medium-scale business, intellectual potential of higher education institutions and scientific and research establishments create favorable conditions for further development. High rating assigned to the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) by agency "Moody's Investors Service", testify to rather high degree of the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) economic reliability and apparent stability that will undoubtedly facilitate the growth of trust to the Territory on the part of foreign investors.

The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) is famous with its cultural traditions, theaters and museums. Ballet troupe of the Opera and Ballet House and modern ballet theater “Evgeny Panfilov’s Ballet Company” are famous all over the world. The unique set of Perm wooden sculptures is the most well-known museum collection.

Professional sport clubs playing in major Russian leagues – football club “Amkar”, basketball club “Ural-Great” are known far outside the territory borders.

2.Analysis of Existing Social-Economic Situation in the Region

2.1.Economic Growth

The analysis of economic potential of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) makes it possible to reveal the main trends in its development.

In the period of 2000–2004 the growth was observed in the region’s economy that first of all expressed itself in the growth of gross regional product (GRP). In current prices GRP for the above period increased 2,03 times. At the same time the growth rate of actual GRP for the given period amounted to 107,2 %, i.e. actual GRP increased by 7,2 %. At that two phases of regional economic growth can be singled out (Figure 2):

1) 2000–2002 – slowdown in GRP growth from 113,1 % in 2000 to 95,2 % in 2002. At the same time, the GRP increase per capita occurred (in prices of 2004) from 93,2 thousand rubles in 2000 to 95,6 thousand rubles in 2002.

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2) 2003–2004 – GRP growth, growth rate of 105 % in 2003 and insignificant slowdown – growth rate of 103,8 % in 2004.

Dynamics of growth rate for gross regional product (in % to the previous period) in the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY)

Fig. 2. Dynamics of economic growth rates in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY)

Volume of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY)’s GRP in 2005 was estimated in current prices as equal to 302,3 billion rubles (10,7 billion dollars). Under estimation, GRP increase in comparable prices to the level of 2004 amounts to 2,31 %. Thus, from 2003 the slowdown of economic growth rates in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) is observed.

Branch structure of GRP lately remains almost unchangeable at maintaining the prevailing industrial share. In 2000 the industrial share in GRP amounted to 44,8 %, in 2004 – to 45,4 %. In this connection one can characterize the economy of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) as economy of industrial type. Volume of industrial products per capita in 2004 in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) (84,5 thousand rubles) was higher than in Privolzhsky Federal District (68,3 thousand rubles) and higher than in Russia (77,7 thousand. rubles).

The commerce is the second branch in terms of economic significance that is testified by its share in GRP. The industry and commerce totally provide for more than a half of GRP in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY).

In production of GRP the main trend lies in reduction of goods share and in increase of services share: in 2000 the share of goods in GRP amounted to 59,3 %, and the share of services – to 40,7 %, whereas in 2004 the share of goods amounted to 57,3 %, and the share of services – to 42,7 % correspondingly. This trend fully corresponds to the world trend.

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The following trends became revealed in the use of GRP:

–Increase in ultimate consumption share of households that reflects certain growth of population’s welfare. In 2000 ultimate consumption of households amounted to 43,1 % of used GRP and in 2004 – to 51,3 %.

–Decrease in gross accumulation of fixed capital that reflects slowdown of investment activity in the region and testifies to insufficient attractiveness of regional economy for its own investment resources. In 2000 gross accumulation of fixed capital amounted to 21,1 % of used GRP and in 2004 – to 17,8 %.

Small business does not play significant role in region’s economy though the share of those engaged in this sector is increasing: in 2003 it amounted to 7 % of total number of the employed (in Russia this figure amounted to 13,6 %), in 2004 – to 13 % (in Russia this figure amounted to 14,9 %). The share of small enterprises in total volume of manufactured products, goods and provided services remained constant – 5 %. The share of small business in GRP of the Territory in 2005 amounted to 6 %.

In the region’s industry one can single out two structure-forming sectors – export-oriented and domestically-oriented between which considerable disproportions exist.

The first one is represented by such branches as chemical, petrochemical, fuel, timber, woodworking and paper-and-pulp exporting products of insufficiently high processing degree. In 2004 28,3 % of GRP fell to the share of the above branches. The domestically-oriented sector is represented by the remaining branches of producing and processing industry.

Branches related to the first sector are competitive in the world market (as their products are in high demand) and are more competitive in relation to the domestically - oriented sector. They are characterized by higher level of all qualitative rates such as profitability, provision with investments, and wages level as compared to domesticallyoriented sector.

The major contribution into the economic growth (increase of actual GRP) in the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) during the period from 2000 to 2004 had been made by export-oriented industrial branches, the share of which amounted to 70 %. The contribution of other material production branches into the economic growth was insignificant:

–domestically – oriented industrial branches – 0,5 %;

–agricultural sector – 14 %;

–construction – 15,5 %

See the below Table 1.

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Table 1

Contribution of individual branches into economic growth of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) (percentage points in GRP)

In the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) export-oriented model of economic growth was formed testifying to high economic dependence on the external market.

Due to the fact that the world markets to which the region’s products are supplied are mainly characterized by considerable volatility (frequent and drastic price fluctuations) such dependence does not promote reaching steady economic growth in the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY).

The possibilities of further economic growth in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) are based on the capacity of export-oriented sector to increase export volumes that has certain limitations existing inside both those branches and outside them. One can single out a number of factors that might become the risk sources (threats) for the economic growth in the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY).

To the external factors are as follows:

–international demand;

–world prices;

–fluctuation of dollar rate in relation to key world currencies;

–fluctuation of rouble rate to dollar and euro;

–growth of transportation and electric power tariffs; and

–limitations on the part of transportation (first of all, pipeline) infrastructure.

To the internal factors are as follows:

–provision with established natural resources;

–production capacity value of enterprises;

–technical level of production;

–investment capabilities; and

–environmental limitations.

The impact of the above external factors, first of all, rouble rate strengthening (predicted by the Russian Federation government as long-term trend) will produce negative effect on the economic growth. The effect of rouble devaluation (1998) that provided for certain competitive advantages for our country established the

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possibility of economic growth based on high degree of closeness of internal markets and boosted build-up of raw materials export. Ruble revalorization that has been taking place from 2002 reduced export efficiency by 2004 (the growth of world prices prevented its considerable decrease) against the background of existing high internal inflation that resulted in costs growth. In addition to that, revalorization opened internal markets and promoted import that resulted in reduction of production volume in import substituting industries that are not sufficiently competitive in comparison with import.

The above internal and external factors of export-oriented branches’ development by limiting their growth might bring about the decrease of economic growth rates that will result in limitation of possibilities for solving economic and social problems in the region.

The comparison of growth dynamics in labor productivity and actual wages for the period from 2000 to 2004 in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) testifies to the outrunning growth of actual wages in comparison with labor productivity growth. Thus, one can see the accelerated “eating” of the created value.

The exceeding of wages growth rates over the labor productivity growth rates results in imbalance in the market of consumer goods and services expressed in facilitated demand and delayed supply of regionally produced goods and services. It brings about price growth on the consumer goods and services (impulse for inflation) and growth of their coming-in from the other regions as well as growth of import that in its turn will result in dependence on manufactures situated outside the region and in slowdown of economic growth in the Territory.

In order to provide for complete analysis the comparison of basic development indices of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) with those of some Russian regions was executed. As interregional comparison entities the following regions were selected: Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk. In general the interregional comparison demonstrated that The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) almost in terms of all key economic indices (except for budget process) was inferior to the above regions occupying the last or the next to the last place preceding Nizhny Novgorod Region. “Self-perpetuating” leaders in the considered group of regions were Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Regions. The situation was radically different only in the budget process field.

For the period of the last few years the region has been characterized with constant budget surplus. In many ways this situation is conditioned by favorable world business environment for the exported goods and aspiration to achieve certain “image” objectives.

While evaluating the surplus value in the form of revenue interest one can say that The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) has the best performance as compared to the above regions significantly exceeding the level of the Russian Federation and that of the Privolzhsky Federal District. In addition to the other things, this conclusion is also backed up by surplus volume in absolute expression. The indices of public finances development level (both in absolute and relative expression) testify to rather high

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qualitative level of their management in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) indices, as a rule, are not inferior to the average ones in the Russian Federation and Privolzhsky Federal District. At the same time, serious delay is observed for the Komi-Permyak Autonomous Area indicators under consideration.

In general, for Privolzhsky Federal District the budget revenues as of December 01. 2005, in average per capita expression amounted to 16308,04 rouble. In terms of this index the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) occupies the leading position as compared to the selected regions considerably exceeding the average level in Privolzhsky Federal District. In terms of tax collection value per capita the indices of the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) exceeds the average indices of Privolzhsky Federal District and those of Sverdlovsk Region.

At present, the investment attractiveness of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) (under estimation of Expert-PA) is considered to be rather high: by the end of 2005 The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) occupied 13th place among all constituent entities of the Russian Federation, however, it is two points below as compared to the preceding years (11th place in 2001 and in 2003–2004). As to the dynamics and investment rating condition of Perm Region in the preceding period, then almost during all the time when the ratings were drawn up (1998–2005) Perm Region has been keeping its leading positions.

2.2. Industry analysis makes it possible to mark some most significant trends in this sector of regional economy.

In general, the trend to growth was revealed in the dynamics of the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) industry, though it was less pronounced than on the whole in the country. Volume of industrial products in 2004 as compared to 2000 in actual established prices in the region increased by 125 % at that All-Russian growth increased by 135 %. In prices of 2000 total volume of industrial products for the above period increased by 19,1 %. One shall also mark the reduction of growth rates in terms of industrial products output in Perm Region in 2004 as compared to 2000.

In the sectorial structure of Perm Region’s industry during the period under consideration small changes occurred. Thus, in 2000 the share of export-oriented branches to which fuel, timber, and woodworking and paper-and-pulp industries as well as chemical and petrochemical industries belong, amounted to 51,3 %, and in 2004 share of these branches reduced to 48 %. The decrease occurred due to reduction of share of timber, woodworking and paper-and-pulp industries by 0,7 % as well as due to reduction of share of chemical and petrochemical industries by 3 %. The share of fuel industry increased by 0,4 % in 2004 as compared to 2000.

The largest share in the sectorial structure of the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) industry in 2004 like in preceding years fell to the fuel industry – 23,7 %, to chemical and petrochemical industries – 16,7 %, to machine building and metalworking production – 15,6 % and to electric power industry – 12,6 %.

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PNRPU

The overall share of export-oriented branches in total industrial output in 2004 amounted to 48 %, and that of domestically-oriented branches – to 52 %. At the same time the contribution of the above branches into the economic growth of the region is not just different, it is not even subject to comparison.

There is clearly seen disproportion in products profitability of exportand domestically-oriented branches, thus in 2000 average products profitability of exportoriented branches amounted to 37 % and by 2004 it increased up to 38,3 %. At that average products profitability of domestically-oriented branches in 2000 amounted to 13,3 % and by 2004 it decreased to 11,5 %.

In respect to economic efficiency parameters all industrial branches in the region can be subdivided in to three groups:

1) Branches with high profitability (35 % and over):

Oil producing, oil refining, chemical and petrochemical including chemicalpharmaceutical industry;

2)Branches with average profitability (20 % – 35 %): Electric power industry, construction materials industry;

3)Branches with profitability below average level (below 20 %):

Gas industry, ferrous industry, nonferrous industry, machine building, timber, woodworking and paper-and-pulp industries, food-manufacturing industry, light industry, glass and porcelain-faience industries.

For the period from 2000 till 2004 monthly average accrued wage grew for all industrial branches, at that the main inter-branch proportions were maintained.

The trend in reduction of basic production assets (BPA) depreciation is observed for export-oriented branches, except for chemical and petrochemical industries (these branches are the most capital-intensive).

In 2004 on the average the BPA depreciation rate of export-oriented branches amounted to 43 % and that of domestically-oriented branches – to 47 %.

In respect to BPA condition the industrial branches are classified the following way:

1)Industrial branches with “very good” BPA condition (depreciation rate – 10–15 %). Such branches do not exist in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY);

2)Industrial branches with “good” BPA condition (depreciation rate – 15–35 %):

– Gas (19,5 %), oil refining (22,7 %), light (25,5 %), woodworking (32,1 %);

3)Industrial branches with “satisfactory” BPA condition (depreciation rate – 35–60 %):

– Paper-and-pulp industry (38,1 %), construction materials industry (37,5 %), food-manufacturing (40,8 %), oil production (44,3 %), machine building and metalworking (47,7 %), non-ferrous industry, chemical and petrochemical industries and logging industry;

4)Industrial branches with “conditionally applicable” BPA condition (depreciation rate – 60–80 %):

– Electric power industry and ferrous industry.

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Thus, critical condition with BPA depreciation is faced in electric power industry and in ferrous industry that might result in technological disaster. In general, considerable part of industrial branches is characterized with high degree of BPA depreciation that decreases competitiveness of their products.

The specifics of industry’s development in the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) lie considerable share of intermediate consumption in it. In this connection it is required to maximize the share of gross value added in final products.

2.3. Analysis of Construction Industry Development demonstrated that during the period under consideration there took place expansion of construction scale in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). Thus, scope of works executed under independent work contracts increased by 69 % (from 11479 million rubles in 2000 to 19360 million rubles in 2004), at that the number of operating construction organizations in Perm territory increased 1,38 times, however, they are mainly represented by small firms. In 2004 the overwhelming majority of them (96 %) related to small organizations with employees number of less than 100 men. Large construction organizations with employee’s number over 200 men amounted to only 2 % of their total number in 2004.

The share of material costs in general cost structure for execution of contractual works decreased from 54,8 % in 2000 to 40,5 % in 2004 that in general testifies to positive trends. At the same time the deterioration of construction machines structure and park occurred.

In general, lately one can speak of high investment activity into the construction branch of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). The investment share into development of production basis of construction organizations in total investment volume in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) increased from 4,3 % in 2000 to 7,8 % in 2004.

Despite the positive dynamics in the housing construction field, the scopes of commissioned dwelling houses in 2004 are considerably lower than in 1990 (lesser by 37,6 % or by 744,3 thousand m2). Average construction cost of 1 square meter of dwelling (except for individual one) increased in the region up to 12,2 thousand rubles in 2004 as compared to 10,5 thousand rubles in 2003. At that in the cities and urban communities it is 2,1 times higher than in rural areas. This index is one of the highest in Privolzhsky Federal District.

2.4. Agricultural sector in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) is in the state of stagnation. This situation is conditioned by both intraregional and macroeconomic and even historical reasons (fig. 3).

Agricultural sector of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) incorporates 393 agricultural enterprises including 43 enterprises on agricultural products processing, 23 enterprises and organizations on service maintenance and logistics support in the agricultural sector.

Out of total Region’s population (2769,8 thousand people) 620,4 thousand people (22,4 %) live in the country-side. 9,5 % of able-bodied population of the region are employed in the regional agricultural sector, out of this number about 68 thousand people are involved directly into the agricultural production.

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According to the statistical data each person working in the agricultural sector provides for employment of 6–8 people in the other economical branches.

The activity of organizations of agricultural sector in Perm Region remains steadily unprofitable. Negative financial result is formed under the impact produced by steady recession condition of a number of organizations. Permanently 30 % of farms are in a state of bankruptcy and about 20 % of farms are in financially unstable condition. Totally the above two groups produce only 20 % gross marketable products output. The profitability of agricultural production in crop growing is higher than in livestock farming: in 2004 the profitability in crop growing amounted to 11,9 % and in livestock farming – to 0,5 %.

In 2004 for agricultural organizations the highest profitability was marked in grains production (27,8 %), lesser profitability was observed in production of potato (14,6 %), milk and dairy products (14 %), eggs (7,8 %), the production of vegetables was loss-making (–17,3 %), the same applies to cattle and poultry growing for slaughtering (–8,3 %).

The important problem faced by agricultural enterprises and organizations is buyers’ debts (in 2004 – 434,1 million rubles), as well as debts to the suppliers (in 2004 – 992,8 million rubles).

The analysis of cost structure for agricultural production in the organizations demonstrated that the highest share in them falls to material costs (in 2004 – 74,1 %), at the same time the share of remuneration of labor is insignificant (in 2004 – 17,7 %). The share of material costs in livestock farming (in 2004 – 76,6 %) is higher than in crop growing (in 2004 – 67,5 %).

The analysis of manpower quality proved that in general for the sector the provision with specialists of main agricultural professions amounts to 88,5 %. The shortage of specialists with higher education amounts to 589 people, shortage of specialists with secondary education amounts to 464 people, and number of the regular labor force – to 2530 people. Agricultural food sector loses about 10 % of manpower (5–6 thousand employees) annually. The lack of skilled labor inflow to the countryside might considerably hinder the development of agricultural food sector.

Index dynamics of physical quantity testifies to decrease in agricultural production in kind for both agricultural organizations and for population’s (private) farms. Flax growing almost ceased to exist and once it was a major agricultural branch of Prikamye Region.

In general output of agricultural production the largest share falls to the products of population’s (private) farms (in 2004 – 51,8 %), at the same time the products output of agricultural organizations occupies the second place (in 2004 – 46,9 %) and the share of farming enterprises is very low (in 2004 – 1,3 %) (fig. 4).

As the agricultural sector is a branch funded by the state then it is required to implement more efficient and targeted use of donations provided to the sector. Simple increase of subsidies’ amount will not result in appropriate output as instead of agricultural production growth there takes place its decrease in kind.

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2.5. Analysis of ratio between main components of transportation infrastructure of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) proves the following. In terms of cargo transportation scale in 2000 railway transport occupied the leading position as 67 % of the entire volume of cargos transported in the region fell to its share. The second place was occupied by motor transport (24 %), the third one – by water transport (9 %). The given calculation did not take into account the volumes of cargo freight by air transport as its share in 2000 amounted to only about 0,00192 %. In 2004 structural ratio somewhat changed in direction of motor transport significance increase – 28 %, in reduction of water transport – to 6 %, at that the specific share of railway transport remained almost intact – 66 %.

The extent of passenger transport is also an important index of social-economic condition of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). In 2004 63 % of passenger turnover fell to the share of bus transport, 17 % fell to the share of tram transport and 16 % – to the share of trolleybus transport. At that the specific share of railway transport remained steady – 4 %.

2.6.Communication sector in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) is rather successful. At present 199 communication operators carry out their activity on the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) area providing telecommunication services (195 operators) and mail service (4 operators).

Revenue volumes of communication enterprises as a result of rendering main services (mail, recording communication, telephone communication etc.) increased 3,6 times in 2004 as compared to 2000 (in comparable prices). Communication enterprises demonstrate positive dynamics as a result of rendering different types of new services. The provision of such services started in 2001 and revenues in comparable prices amounted to 18,2 million rubles. By 2004 their volumes increased 18,6 times having reached 338,1 million rubles. The rates of revenue growth as a result of new communication services rendering to population were less significant as their growth amounted only to 2,5 times (from 13,6 million rubles in 2001 to 34,6 million rubles in 2004). This market segment of communication enterprises services is of considerable potential.

2.7.Trading is one of the most steadily developed branches in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). In terms of its specific share in gross regional product trading steadily occupies the second place following the industrial production. In 2004 the share of trading in GRP amounted to 11,6 %. In respect to those employed the trading also occupies the second place in the region following the industrial production. The share of those employed in trading amounts to about 14 % of their total number in economy (the share of those employed in industrial production amounts to about 27 %). Over 25 % of all enterprises functioning in the region’s territory are concentrated in trading field and in 2000–2004 this share increased from 25,5 to 28,4 %. In addition to that, about 40 % of all small-scale enterprises are concentrated in trading and this share does not change considerably.

There takes place continuous increase of trading volumes both in terms of production goods and consumer goods. The increase of consumer goods’ turnover is first of all conditioned by population’s revenues growth and the dynamics character

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