книги / Социально-экономический обзор Пермского края

of retailing and public catering turnover in 2000–2004 coincides with type of change in actual revenues of population.

Trading is one of the most successfully developing branches of regional economy. Here one observes continuous growth both in absolute and in relative terms and competition sharpening to that the growth of trade enterprises number and reduction of trading profit rate testify.

2.8.Analysis of foreign trading in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) demonstrates relative stability in export growth of the region. In 2001–2004 increase of goods and services export volume in kind occurred. One shall mark that The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY)’s export is predominantly of primary and lowtechnology type and that it highly depends on world prices. The export share in GRP is rather significant – 24,11 % in 2004.

For a number of production plants in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) export is the most important sales outlet. Thus, in 2004 the following products were exported:

– 8 % of produced oil;

– 19,2 % of produced oil products;

– 69,6 % of produced nitrogen fertilizers;

– 82,5 % of produced potassium fertilizers;

– 61,6 % of produced newsprint paper.

The specified types of products are mainly of primary and low-technological kind that reduces possibility of added value creation and testifies to irrational export structure in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY).

2.9.Analysis of product markets in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) allowed to make a conclusion on market prospects for the regional enterprises, to define the markets requiring state interference in this or that form.

The consumer market incorporates the market of food products, market of non-foods and market of fee-based services rendered to population. During the last years the market of non-foods has been developing in the most dynamic manner. The growth in this market amounted to over 50 % (sales volume in current prices increased more than 1,5 times). Sales volume in the foodstuff market increased by 30 % and market size of fee-based services grew only by 8 %.

The decrease in level of actual (relative) prices was observed in commodity markets, i.e. the rates of prices growth on these markets were lower than inflation rates. From 2000 to 2004 the actual prices growth on the foodstuff and non-foods market amounted to 85 %, i.e. on the average the prices went down by 15 %.

On the contrary, the market of fee-based services observed the growth of actual prices, at that it exceeded 60 %. First of all, it was conditioned by growth of tariffs on municipal housing services which increased almost 3 times for the period under consideration.

In general the foodstuff market expands, sales volumes grow, food prices reveal trend to decreasing and supply adequately reacts to demand growth.

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The non-foods markets steadily developed in 2000–2004, the supply flexibly reacted to changes in consumer’s demand. The markets of cloths and shoes, outerand underwear, fabrics, construction materials, TVand electronics, tobacco products did not experience drastic price fluctuations. The fabrics market can be characterized as a market close to saturation; one can also mark here recession in demand in 2004. Markets of cloths and shoes are also approaching saturation (sales volumes and prices have been stable during several years).

The market of TV and electronics continues to growth actively. Thus, for example, sales volume of color TV sets for the period under consideration increased 2,5 times and this far the recession in growth rates is not observed. At that the prices for the same period decreased almost 2 times. The market of construction materials faces continuous reduction of prices and increase of sales volume (volume growth amounts to 1,5 times, prices decrease amounts to 20 % for 2000–2004) the same situation is experienced by tobacco products market (volume growth amounts to 2 times, prices decrease amounts to 40 %), at that here the trend to decrease of sales growth rates is observed as the markets tend to saturation. In the car market from 2000 till 2004 sales volume increased almost 3 times.

In general the services market can be characterized as unstable: here considerable fluctuation of growth rates was observed both in terms of prices and volume of sales. After 2002 the market of services experienced drastic growth of sales volume. In 2000–2004 the markets of communication services (volume growth – 2 times) and of physical training and sport (growth exceeded 1,5 times) developed in the most dynamic manner. The growth was also observed on the markets of housing-communal, transportation and tourist services. Volume reduction of rendered services occurred only on the markets of medical, personal and sanatoriumrecreational services.

At the same time, almost all services markets increased prices (go down of actual prices was observed only on the markets of legal services and services related to preschool education). It testifies to the fact that services markets enjoy growth potential and demand growth provides for the possibility to expand the supply.

The analysis of regional industrial sectors’ markets demonstrates that from 2000 till 2004 the majority of sectors experienced increase in volume of sold products. The growth was not observed only in fuel industry and in the light industry there took place considerable reduction of shipped products volumes (by 20 %). The most considerable growth was marked in chemical and petrochemical sectors (30 %). Sales volume in non-ferrous and ferrous industry, in construction materials industry, in timber, woodworking and paper-and-pulp industry increased by 20 %. Market growth rates of industrial branches can be called relatively stable.

Growth of actual prices by the end of 2004 in comparison to 2000 occurred in such branches as petrochemical, oil producing, chemical (15–20 %) as well as in construction materials, woodworking and fuel industries (up to 5 %). The highest

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price rise was recorded in ferrous industry: by 2004 actual prices in this branch increased by 60 %. Dampening of demand in industry is observed only on the market of light industry products; apparently the enterprises of this branch and their goods are noncompetitive.

The comparison of import and export of products to the regions of Russia testifies to the positive balance established in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY): the export of products from the region in terms of its value steadily exceeds import. At the same time the situation for different commodity groups significantly differs.

The products of production-technical designation prevail in the structure of export and import. In the export the share of products of production-technical designation fluctuated from 70 % to 77 %, the share of consumer goods made up from 23 % to 30 % and the share of crops and legumes – to less than 0,1 %. In the import structure the share of products of production-technical designation was more considerable but reduced from 84 to 77 %, the share of consumer goods correspondingly increased from 16 to 27 %, and the share of crops and legumes fluctuated from 0,1 to 0,5 %.

Considerable predominance (from 81 % to 91 %) of nonfood component in the structure of consumer goods export is conditioned first of all by the fact that The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) is major supplier of motor gasoline making from 53 % to 68 % in the cost of consumer goods export. At that one shall mark that share of foodstuffs in the export that decreased in 2000–2002 from 14,9 % to 8,6 %, started to grow in 2003 and reached 18,8 % by 2004.

The specific share of foodstuffs in total volume of consumer goods import made up from 43 % to 48 %, at that this value grew till 2002 and then it started to decrease.

In the export structure of production-technical designation products the diesel fuel, paper and ferrous roll stock occupy the leading positions.

In the import structure the major share falls to ferrous roll stock, steel pipes, freight mainline cars and trucks.

2.10. Financial Market of the Territory is represented by all three main components - fund, banking and insurance. The region is provided with developed network of financial and credit institutions. Specialized institutions acting both as direct investors and financial intermediaries energetically operate on the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) financial market: 28 professional security market participants, investment and leasing companies, pension funds and other structures providing for transformation of monetary resources into investments.

Number of investment companies operating in the region are of federal scale (Perm Fund Company and Vitus), however, their number is small. First of all, it is explained by general non-development of Russian stock market and by unwillingness of Perm emitters and investors to cooperate with them.

By 2005 no considerable qualitative or quantitative changes occurred in the structure of credit institutions operating in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY), however the market changed considerably: from saving the majority of clients turned to crediting and consumption of bank’s products.

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According to the data of Main Office of Bank of Russia in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) as on 1.01.2006 the situation in the bank sector was characterized as stable, 9 regional banks and 53 branches of banks of other regions including 48 branches of Moscow banks (20 of them are branches of the Sberbank of the Russian Federation) operated on the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) area. At the same time only 4 branches of Perm banks operate in the other regions of Russia.

Out of regional banks number only 2 banks (22,2 % of total number) have the registered authorized capital value over 300 million rubles, at the same time 3 banks (33,3 %) have authorized capital value from 10 to 30 million rubles, that testifies to insufficient authorized capital of regional banks.

The trend of banks number growth on the region’s territory becomes dominating. However, the growth in number of crediting organizations on The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) is often related to coming of banks from the other regions and decrease (in equal shares) is related to withdrawal of a license and reorganization in the form of affiliation by turning into branches of other banks (as a rule, from other regions).

The segment of plastic cards actively develops in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). As on 01.01.2006 21 payment systems operate in the Territory, 37 crediting organizations (branches) are involved in settlements with use of bank cards that amounts to 84,1 % of total number of those operating in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). In 2006 “qualitative” segment growth is expected as active initial growth of issued cards number on the region’s territory is due to salary’s projects. There is forecasted growth of credit cards share in total volume of emitted cards.

In the structure of newly disbursed credits to the loaners in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) in 2005 the following types of activity prevail:

–trading and repair – 43,7 %;

–generation and distribution of electric power, gas and water – 11,7 %;

–physical persons – 9,3 %;

–construction – 7,3 %;

–manufacturing activities – 3,7 %.

This testifies to the fact that priorities of bank lending still lie in the projects with quick payback periods.

Among the credits granted by all banks in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) (as on 1.01.2006) there prevail the credits of perpetual trust type – 28,85 %, they are followed by credits for the period over 3 years – 16,96 % and credits for the period from 1 to 3 years – 16,34 %. At that the share of credits for the period over 3 years granted by non-resident bank branches amounts to only 5,09 %, while this share of regional banks makes up 6,69 % and that of Sberbank – 25,8 %. At that the maximal period of credits granted by Sberbank can amount to 5 years. It testifies to the fact that almost not a single bank in the region is engaged in long-term crediting and only Sberbank is involved in medium-term crediting. Perpetual trust credits are credit lines, so, they do not represent long-term credits. Non-resident bank branches have

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the share of such credits equal to 36,14 %, the regional banks – 14,3 % and Sberbank – 28,35 %.

On the one hand all the above demonstrates weakness of regional banks and on the other hand – insufficient participation of banks in the investment process.

The development of credit market shows that crediting will become the most called-up product in the nearest future.

One of the main characteristics of regional insurance market is very high presence of non-resident insurers there. In general, for all types of insurance they collect about a half of all premiums. First of all, the advantage of non-resident branches (mostly from the capital) of insurance companies lies in the fact that they are ready to provide the same services to their clients as their parent companies thereby considerably surpassing Perm insurers in terms of range of services.

2.11. In the Investment Field the main trends of development and structural changes of this component are identified.

Basing on the financing sources the composition of investments into the fixed capital demonstrates that own funds of enterprises and organizations continue to prevail among the financing sources. The banking sector of the region does not provide the enterprises with the required crediting level and failure of trust between creditors and loaners still exists. During the last years the situation has been coming round but not significantly. In general, the share of bank credits in the country gradually grows (from 2,9 % in 2000 to 5,3 % in 2003) and in Perm Region the share of bank credits for the period of 2001–2004 increased from 15,18 % to 31,7 %. At the same time the share of budgetary funds increases (from 11,6 % in 2001 to 15,2 % in 2004) in which the budgetary funds of Constituent entities of the Russian Federation prevail (almost 2 times).

Among the own funds the depreciations deductions rather than deductions from profit prevail. In general, the share of depreciation deductions for the industrial branches in total volume of funds used by enterprises for investments amounts to over 50 % and slightly fluctuates for different branches. This situation is unfavorable and demonstrates the lack of investments.

The trend is observed of gradual equalization of own and raised funds ratio from 72,6 % and 27,4 % in 2001 to 53,1 % and 46,9 % in 2004. Among the raised funds the share of budgetary funds gradually increases.

Certain changes in the dynamics of foreign investments occur in the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). For the period from 2000 to 2003 volume of foreign investments incoming to the regional economy reduced by 63 %. In 2004 drastic growth of foreign investments (9,3 times) at the expense of credits was observed.

In general the composition of incoming foreign investments was unsatisfactory: the share of direct foreign investments (DFI) did not reach even a half of total international capital flows except for 2001 when the share of DFI amounted to 62,4 %. In 2004 the share of DFI happened to be extremely low for the entire

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period under consideration – 0,6 %. This is a very negative phenomenon as DFI represent long-term investments of productive capital and their flow means emergence of new production facilities, of new working places, increase of tax revenues to the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) budget, it also facilitates economic growth in the region.

In the foreign investments composition the highest share consists of other investments including all types of different credits. In 2004 their share was maximal – 98 %. The share of portfolio investments was insignificant. Only in 2004 it reached 1,4 % – peak value for the given index.

The major part of foreign investments flew to the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) from the developed countries. In 2004, Cyprus (63,4 %) and Switzerland (12,9 %) were leaders in this group. Taking into account the off-shore status of the above countries one can make a conclusion that, most probably former Russian capital went back to The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). Along with the developed countries, CIS countries (Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan) also made investments in the economy of the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY).

The analysis of availability and quality of main PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) resources was executed along four directions: labor resources, capital resources, natural resources and knowledge (skill) resources.

2.12. Analysis of Labor Resources makes it possible to detect the following trends.

In general the region is characterized by relative stability of economically active population number. As per situation by the end of 2004 the level of unemployment in Perm Region amounts to 7 % that demonstrates the lack of stress on the labor market. Nevertheless, natural unemployment level in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) amounted to 5 %, so, cyclical unemployment amounts to about 2 % that results in dragging of actual GRP as compared to the potentially possible level.

Among the constituent entities of the Privolzhsky Federal District, the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) (including Komi-Permyak Autonomous Area) occupies one of the last places in terms of the occupied population’s education that testifies to insufficient quality of labor force. One shall draw special attention to the low number of people with higher education in the category of occupied population per 1000 people: in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) – 174 people, in Komi-Permyak Autonomous Area – 109 people, in Samara Region – 236 people, in Nizhny Novgorod Region – 211 people, in general in Privolzhsky Federal District – 200 people, in the Russian Federation – 232 people. There evidently exists structural unbalance between the demand and supply on the skilled labor market in the Territory.

2.13. Analysis of Capital as economical resource shows that capital supplies decreases in real terms. The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) can be characterized as region with insufficient capital resources that makes actual the task of raising outside investment resources to the region. Together with slight reduction in fixed capital

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accumulation considerable drop of current assets is observed that results in change of capital structure. The accumulation share decreases in the structure of regional product thus creating threat to further growth of capital volumes in the region and to the investment process.

The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) possesses the richest natural resources potential. The situation analysis for 2004 demonstrated that the regional budget by almost 30 % is formed with taxes and payments revenue from enterprises using natural resources for their activity.

In terms of value each square meter of subsoil within the territory of Prikamye is evaluated at almost 2 million US dollars that defines it leading position among the Russian Federation regions. Over 1000 deposits containing almost 50 types of mineral products are discovered and explored on the region’s territory. Some of them possessing unique properties can be found only within the territory of the region or can be related it terms of their importance to All-Russian ones. The main mineral products on the region’s territory are oil and gas, potassium-magnesium and sodium salts, precious and semi-precious stones, gold and platinum, chromium ores, metallurgical and cement feedstock, carbonate feedstock for chemical industry, widely spread mineral products, underground mineral and sweet waters.

The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) belongs to the group of regions rich in woods. Forests cover 69 % of its area. Forests distribution is rather non-uniform. Forests cover up to 90 % of the area in the northern and north-eastern districts. The amount of forests in the southern part and around large settlements is considerably lower. In the outermost south there are districts where the forests amount falls to 30– 35 %. In terms of species composition the share of coniferous woods amounts to 61 % and that of deciduous woods – to 39 % of the total plantation reserves.

In terms of provision with water resources the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) occupies the first place in Ural. Widely developed hydrological network is represented by all types of internal water bodies – rivers, water-storage basins, ponds, lakes, swamps. Average multi-year resources of suRussian Federationace flow amount to over 57 km3/A (1,3 % of river flow volume in Russia), over 80 % out of them are formed within the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) borders.

Analysis of knowledge (skills) level as economical resource allowed to single out a number of positive trends in the given field.

A number of major scientific centers and educational institutions of world level find themselves in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY). From this point of view The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) possesses unique potential as compared to the other regions. Totally 66 organizations subordinate to different departments and of different property forms where over 600 doctors of science and 2400 candidates of science (PhD) work, are involved in research and developments in the region.

Four institutes and one institute branch of the Ural Department of Russian Academy of Sciences, fourteen institutions of higher education and about thirty five

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branch institutes and design offices of scientific and industrial organizations operate in the region.

The most important specific of the region is increase of internal costs for Research and Development Works as well as growth of federal financing of scientific research (both in nominal and in actual values). As a result high level of innovation activity of enterprises and organizations is registered in different economical sectors of the Territory. In terms of innovation activity level the region occupies the first place in Russia, in terms of other indices its positions are much lower. It means the lack of interaction between the main subjects of innovation economy and inconsistency (fragmentation) of scientific and technical and research activity. Each subject operates by itself, there are no results movement along the chain of innovations implementation (“innovations diffusion”).

The Territory takes the leading positions in terms of qualitative use of results of scientific and research works:

–Inventions: the first place in the Privolzhsky Federal District and among the RUSSIAN FEDERATION regions (418 inventions);

–Useful models: the fifth place in the Privolzhsky Federal District (53 useful models) and 13-th place in general rating of the regions of the Russian Federation;

–Industrial illustrations: the eighth place among the Privolzhsky Federal District and 13–14-th places in general rating of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION regions.

In terms of internal costs amount for the research and development activities, The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) occupies the 10th place in Russia, however, in terms of share of costs for technical innovations in volume of shipped products even for innovation active enterprises it occupies only 31–33 places. Thus, financial returns of Research and Development results in highly demanded products are not sufficient.

To summarize the analysis of the resources, one can say that the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) possesses the richest natural resources, high innovation potential but rather low capital investments and labor resources of insufficient quality.

2.14. Human Potential Development

Complicated demographic situation is observed in the PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) that is characterized by steady population decline. For the period from the last enumeration conducted in the USSR (1989) the population of the Territory reduced by 12 % and amounted to 2 748 200 people (the 4th place in the Ural Economic Area and the 5th place in Privolzhsky Federal District) by the beginning of 2006.

Change in regional population occurs both at the expense of mechanical and natural population decline. In The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) during the last ten years both migration balance (in 2005 – 14) and factor of natural population decline (in 2005 – 7) have negative values. During the last years the birth rate did not exceed 11 ‰, at that the number of deaths annually exceeds the number of the new-born 1,4 – 1,8 times (in 2005 – in 1,6 times) – See fig. 3.

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death corresponds to average Russian indices (11,6 ‰). Among the causes of infant death the first place is occupied by some perinatal conditions (36,9 %), the second place – by birth defects (28,8 %). The third place is occupied by respiratory system’s diseases (12,5 %).

The target groups forming the most considerable contributions into the early death rate are men of active working age (injuries and poisoning); male and female population of old age (cardiovascular diseases); women of 40 years and over (malignant growth); women of child producing age (infant death).

The indices of general sickness rate in The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) are somewhat higher than on the average in Russia. At the same time primary sickness of the Permyaks in terms of the majority of diseases exceeds both the average Russian parameters and the indices of the main regions-competitors. The highest level is demonstrated by newly registered people with primary established diagnosis for the classes of contagious and parasitic diseases – over 50 cases per 1000 people (in the Russian Federation – less than 40); skin and hypoderm diseases – 62,0 (in the Russian Federation – 49.0); congenital anomalies (birth defects), deformations and chromosome defects – 3.1 (in the RUSSIAN FEDERATION – 1.7); injuries, poisoning and other after-effects produced by external causes impact – 118,5 (in the Russian Federation – 90.0).

Number of people suffering of socially significant diseases permanently increases in the region. It occurs mainly due to the growth of diseases caused by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), their number exceeded 6000 people.

The formed level of The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) population provision with medical aid is rather high: provision with hospital beds and health care manpower exceeds the All-Russian indices. In terms of doctors’ number per 10 000 people (54,5 doctors) the region occupies the 17th place in the RUSSIAN FEDERATION, in terms of provision with middle medical staff it occupies 38th place (117,8 medical technicians per 10 000 people). The capacity of medical outpatientpolyclinic institutions in the Territory continuously grows exceeding value of 192 visits per shift as per 10 000 people, however, it falls behind the Russian index (over 250).

In the field of labor environment and protection the positive trend revealed itself during the last years expressed in reduction of occupational injuries and occupational diseases level. However, the occupational injuries intensity factor is still rather high in the Territory – 2.11 (30th place in the RUSSIAN FEDERATION). The number of newly found out occupational diseases (poisonings) reduced to 2 cases per 10 000 working people. During the last years the deterioration of labor environment indices is observed that represent the one of main factors producing impact of employees’ injuries and sickness rate. Thus, the share of number of employees engaged in production facilities with harmful and hazardous labor conditions increased. The PERM KRAI (TERRITORY) can be characterized by fair sharp territorial and branch differentiation in labor environment, occupational injuries and diseases.

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